PUBLIC FORWARD RECORD · BTC 15 MINUTE

No blended score. No rewritten history.

Every qualified call is timestamped under the model version that made it. Current results never borrow wins from an older engine.

Market feed connected. Only qualified calls enter the record. Last engine update: Oct 14, 11:32 AM UTC. Latest qualified call: Oct 11, 5:35 PM UTC.

CURRENT MODELv5.5.2 · BTC 15MForward results only · launched as a fresh sample

Calls sealed3

Scored3

Pending0

Direction accuracy66.7%

Brier score0.283

99% is a target, not a verified result. V5.1 starts a fresh forward sample; prior results remain archived below. Calls now require at least 90% estimated probability, close venue agreement, sufficient feeds, a spread no wider than 4¢, and at least 3¢ estimated edge after a standard taker-fee allowance. These experimental gates may issue very few calls and do not establish 90% or 99% accuracy.

Measured uncertainty: 95% Wilson interval: 20.8%–93.9%, from 3 scored calls. Serially related rounds can make this interval optimistic. Accuracy measures direction only. Brier score measures probability error; lower is better. Neither includes realized fills, fees, slippage, or trading P&L.

AUTOMATIC DATA COLLECTION · INCLUDES WAIT ROUNDS

Forward evaluation

Collecting on the server every minute, even with this page closed. Started: Oct 7, 4:04 AM UTC. Latest recorded sample: Oct 14, 11:32 AM UTC.

11764 snapshots across 695 observed rounds. 694 rounds captured in the 10:00–9:00 remaining window; 694 officially settled. Qualified-call coverage: 0.4%. Missing windows are not backfilled.

All lock samples, including WAIT: model Brier 0.198; venue baseline Brier 0.182. Venue baseline excludes samples without a venue probability. Repeated minute reads are not counted as independent trials.

Estimated confidenceScored roundsDirection accuracy95% interval

50–60%27052.2%46.3%–58.1%

60–70%19473.2%66.6%–78.9%

70–80%15379.1%72.0%–84.8%

80–90%7491.9%83.4%–96.2%

90–100%3100.0%43.9%–100.0%

IMMUTABLE CALL LOG

Current-version calls

3 most recent shown

SealedCallProbabilityOutcomeResult

Oct 11, 5:35 PM UTCUP92.3%UPCORRECT

Oct 8, 12:50 PM UTCDOWN93.6%DOWNCORRECT

Oct 8, 4:20 AM UTCDOWN91.6%UPMISS

VERSION ARCHIVE

Older models stay separate

VersionScoredAccuracyBrier

v5.5.2 · BTC 15M366.7%0.283

v5.5.1 · BTC 15M4100.0%0.007

v5.4.0 · BTC 15M4100.0%0.006

v5.0.0 · BTC 15M22870.6%0.192

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